More about crime stats: the importance of the methodology

I just received an email from Nicholas Marsh, researcher at the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers. Mr. Marsh is reacting to the video I posted here earlier, titled “Choose Your Own Crime Stats” (see below).

Mr. Marsh authorized me (thanks!) to quote him at length, and that’s all I’ll do, hoping this would trigger more discussion on the topic.

a) Yes, there has been a steady decline in violent crime in the USA over the past two decades. This has been remarked upon at length in books, newspapers and magazines. So he is wrong to suggest that no one has talked about it. Though its my impression that  the decline hasn’t featured prominently over the last few weeks. In general, I agree that as far as statistics are concerned, the recent debate has featured an absence of stats, or people cherry picking the stats that support their case and ignoring the ones that don’t. 

b) Yes, more violent crime tends to occur in urban areas - I’m guessing that’s the same in Belgium. 

c) There is though a big problem with his comparison of violent crime in the UK and USA. The UK headline numbers (available here http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hosb0812/hosb0812?view=Binary) are for ‘violence against the person’. If you look at the methodology (see here http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/counting-rules/) they include predictable things like manslaughter, murder or assault, but they also include things such as: conspiracy to murder, causing death by dangerous driving, harassment, illicit abortion, illicit possession of firearms, and assault without injury. The ‘violence against the person’ figures do not include sexual offenses (eg rape), robbery or burglary which are presented separately in the report. 

The FBI statistics (see here http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-1) cover ‘violent crime’ which is defined as: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault (see http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/violent-crime/violent-crime)

So the UK and US violent crime statistics presented in the video are actually covering completely different things. They can’t meaningfully be compared. 

The differences in definition are a general problem when comparing crime across countries. In addition, you have big differences in the level of reporting of crimes. 

Homicide is one offence which tends to have similar definitions (though even then there are lots of differences, eg how manslaughter is treated) and a generally high level of reporting at least in developed countries. So its more meaningful to compare homicide than to other violent crimes.

Mr. Marsh adds, a bit later, in a second email:

It should be possible to compare violent crime in the USA and UK if someone could get data on specific offenses (eg armed robbery).

I’d be interested in hearing any opinions on what is said in this video about crime data in the US (especially after what happened in Newtown, CT).

h/t W.R.

**UPDATES are at the end of this post**

This video demonstrating the use of a FN FAL was published a few days ago along with two others, also focusing on that firearm, here and here.

Reading the markings shown on one of the videos, one would conclude that part of that FAL’s kit was made in Brazil, which is interesting for a video intended to provide weapons’ related instructions to Syrians who would join the opposition forces.

As I keep digging into this, I was wondering if any of the readers of this website were FAL enthusiasts or part of the military and would care to give their opinion both on the weapon and on what is shown in those videos. Don’t hesitate to answer to this post!

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UPDATE July 17, 2012: Steve Johnson, Editor-in-Chief at The Firearm Blog (I sent him the videos, which are now featured with some interesting information) wrote me today. According to him, the scope mount rail, above the receiver, is a DSA Arms Extreme Duty Scope Mount, which is manufactured by DSA Arms in the USA. He continues:

“Looking at [the] other videos, I think they were shot in the USA. [The] collection of guns, specifically the Kel-Tec, which has not [been] exported in great quantities. It’s possible it is Syria, but I doubt it.”

The USA-based hypothesis is reinforced by the fact that the Kalashnikov-variant rifle shown in another video appears to be a variant imported from Romania to the USA by Century Arms, Georgia, Vermont (Watch the video in HD, approximatively at 02:00).

UPDATE July 18, 2012: Wired Danger Room is featuring the same thing now, with more information.

What did the US Department of Defense buy in Belgium in 2011?

On May 18, 2012, the US Department of Defense published its report to Congress on purchases of supplies manufactured outside the United States for the fiscal year 2011. Take a look at the document to see what the Pentagon bought from your country.

DoD FY 2011 Purchases of Supplies Manufactured Outside the United States

Belgium is mentioned 12 times in this report. On the 243,000 actions, worth USD 24 billion*, of purchases in supplies, services, fuel and construction, only 3,000 were made in Belgium, worth USD 73 million (0.3%). The US DoD bought for roughly 30,000,000 USD of equipement made in Belgium.

What equipement did the US DoD buy in Belgium in 2011?

Aircraft Equipement (USD 35,000) ; Missile and Space Systems (USD 950,000) ; Ships (USD 891,000) ; Combat Vehicles (USD 20,400) ; Non-Combat Vehicles (USD 621,000) ; Weapons (USD 25,000,000) ; Ammunition (unspecified) ; Electronics and Communication Equipement (USD 4,300) ; Medical and Dental Supplies Equipement (USD 70,400) ; Others (USD 1,900,000).

Although not specified, the term “weapons” used in this report could refer to small arms and light weapons. If it is the case, then small arms and light weapons account for roughly 83% of the equipement bought by the US DoD in Belgium in 2011. This equipement accounts for roughly 41% of purchases made in Belgium.

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*All numbers are rounded.

Special thanks to the website of Philippe Chapleau, where this report was mentioned a while ago.

Demain, 4 juillet. WEST WE GO L’Amérique dans (presque) tous ses états vue à travers les yeux et les histoires de ceux qui la font tous les jours de leurs mains. Un voyage à l’Ouest, où les Etats-Unis restent une terre à trouver ou à retrouver, pleine de promesses et de désillusions, de rêves et de combats, de richesse et de pauvreté ; où les frontières sont sans cesse érigées, sans cesse repoussées. Par le bout de la lorgnette, explorer ce pays qui a pour devise « e pluribus unum », défini par ses contradictions et ses différences. Pour laisser l’Amérique être l’Amérique de nouveau : le pays qui n’a pas encore été (Langston Hughes).
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Demain, 4 juillet.

WEST WE GO

L’Amérique dans (presque) tous ses états vue à travers les yeux et les histoires de ceux qui la font tous les jours de leurs mains.

Un voyage à l’Ouest, où les Etats-Unis restent une terre à trouver ou à retrouver, pleine de promesses et de désillusions, de rêves et de combats, de richesse et de pauvreté ; où les frontières sont sans cesse érigées, sans cesse repoussées.

Par le bout de la lorgnette, explorer ce pays qui a pour devise « e pluribus unum », défini par ses contradictions et ses différences. Pour laisser l’Amérique être l’Amérique de nouveau : le pays qui n’a pas encore été (Langston Hughes).

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